Swing states: What they are and why they matter

By Kaitlyn Fleming, Marshall University

Swing states are crucial to the 2024 election. Candidates focus on winning over these states–particularly Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the 2024 election–since each state can “swing” for either party. 

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump know that each of these states are the key to winning office, explaining why they focus a large amount of their campaign efforts on these states. 

Campaign efforts in these swing states are not exclusive to Harris and Trump–vice presidential candidates have made several visits to these states to sway voters and gain campaign support

Swing states matter because 270 electoral college votes are required for a candidate to win the presidential election.

Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris              Courtesy of The Independent

Also known as battleground states, swing states have small voter-differential margins, making their votes for the election crucial to deciding who takes office. 

For example, in the 2020 presidential election, Arizona played a key role in Joe Biden’s win over Donald Trump. Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes were awarded to Biden–whereas in the 2016 election Trump claimed his victory in Arizona. 

Since 1992, the opposite party candidate of the previous election has won the votes of 30 states at least once. In addition, less than three points determined the win of 26 states in any presidential election since 1992. 

However, swing states have the ability to change–and have changed over time. For example, New Mexico and Iowa were swing states in 2000 and 2004, but have yet to fit the category since then. Likewise, Arizona and Georgia have fluctuated in terms of swing state status. 

In regards to swing state significance, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia have matched the election winner every election but one since 2000. 

With their unpredictable voter bases these battlegrounds will play a decisive role in determining the 2024 presidential election outcome.