Professor with 13 keys strategy predicts Harris will win election

By Madison Lucchesi

In 1981, Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok and Professor Allan Lichtman combined earthquake science and political history to create a system to predict the outcomes of presidential elections. That system, known as the 13 Keys to the White House, analyzes the candidates and state of foreign and domestic policy to predict the next president. 

“The 13 keys reflect how American presidential elections really work,” said Lichtman, who is a distinguished professor of history at American University. 

Lichtman and Keilis-Borok, some called “the odd couple of political research,” studied each presidential election dating back to the Lincoln administration, according to Lichtman. 

The keys are equally weighted true or false questions and address the following topics: “mandate, incumbency, contest for the White House party, third party, short and long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, and foreign/military failures and successes.”

“Only two keys have anything to do with the candidate,” which, he said, are really high threshold keys. “They ask if the incumbent or challenging candidate is one of those one-in-a-generation, inspirational candidates,” such as Franklin D. Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.  

If six or more keys are false, the incumbent presidential party is the predicted loser, but if fewer than six keys are false, the incumbent party is the predicted winner. In September, the professor predicted Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election. 

Harris is the predicted winner since there is no party mandate or military or foreign failure and the incumbent is not charismatic or seeking reelection. 

Since the establishment of the 13 keys, Lichtman accurately predicted nine out of the last 10 presidential elections. Lichtman predicted Al Gore would win the election in 2000, but said his error comes from discarded votes in Florida. 

The outcome of Tuesday’s election will determine whether or not Licthman maintains his near-perfect reputation.